I have a love/hate relationship with the Oscars, or more specifically a love/disappointed relationship, where I always hope for a more exciting Oscar race but have to settle in for a lot of foregone conclusions, particularly in the acting race. I find this time, early in the Oscar season, to be the most interesting and exciting. where there are still wild cards and still a guessing game around who's going to make in to the top five. I wanted to give my overview what I think is going on in the major categories. So, let's start with the big prize, Best Picture.
Best Picture
The two films poised to battle it out for Best Picture appear to be Bradley Cooper's directorial debut, A Star is Born, the latest version of this story- the last being the 1976 film starring Kris Kristofferson and Barbara Streisand- and Damien Chazelle's follow up to La La Land, First Man, the true life story of Neil Armstrong's journey to the moon. I sense people will be either team A Star is Born or team First Man. I feel First Man is getting stronger reviews but A Star is Born may end up doing what La La Land notoriously almost/kind of did, win Best Picture.
On the less traditional side of things, Yorgas Lanthimos' films have been too odd to find their way in to the Best Picture race (though he was nominated for Best Original Screenplay for The Lobster), his latest film, The Favourite, which sounds like a combination of Barry Lyndon and All About Eve, has the potential to be his first Best Picture nominee. The film takes place in the 18th Century and concerns the rivalry between Lady Sarah (Rachel Weisz) and servant Abigail (Emma Stone) over Queen Anne's (Olivia Coleman) favouritism.
Alfonso Cuaron's latest film Roma has received rave reviews and is being called his most personal work to date. If it were to be nominated it'd be the first film on Netflix to garner a Best Picture nomination.
Steve McQueen's Widows sounds like a more mainstream and traditionally entertaining film than we've come to expect from the director, albeit one with a social conscious akin to his previous work. With comparisons to The Departed and the Ocean's movies, this could make it in to the race.
Barry Jenkins' follow-up to his Best Picture winner Moonlight is If Beale Street Could Talk, based on James Baldwin's novel. The film is getting glowing reviews, with Jenkins being commended for translating Baldwin's prose to cinema. Furthermore, it's being called another sensitive and beautiful love story from the director.
Beautiful Boy, based on the true story of a father facing the reality of his son's drug addiction is getting mixed reviews, with most of the praise going towards Steve Carell and Timothee Chalamet's performances. However, the relatability of the subject matter could push it in to the Best Picture line-up.
The other ''Boy'' movie this year is Boy Erased. It's also based on a true story, about a 19 year boy outed to his parents as gay and sent to conversion therapy. The film is getting strong reviews and is actor Joel Edgerton's follow up to The Gift. Thankfully he's not going through a sophomore slump.
Backseat, a comedy-drama biopic about former Vice-President Dick Cheney is still a wild card with no trailer and a late December release date. Adam McKay directed it and while it could be another The Big Short (for which McKay was nominated for Best Director), it also could be another W. (Oliver Stone's George W. Bush biopic.)
Then there's the question of Black Panther. I'd argue The Dark Knight is still the closest we've gotten to a superhero film nominated for Best Picture and it'd probably get nominated if it came out this year. While horror, sci-fi and fantasy have been nominated and even won Best Picture the superhero genre still hasn't broken through, though it's been rewarded in other areas- most significantly, Heath Ledger's posthumous win for his portrayal of the Joker in The Dark Knight. Black Panther is already seen as a game-changer since it's a predominantly black superhero film; it's cultural impact will certainly be an advantage.
Best Director
Bradley Cooper could join Robert Redford and Kevin Costner as actors who've won Best Director for their a directorial debuts. Damien Chazelle could also wind up as the young two-time Best Director winner but voters may not want to give him so much so soon.
Alfonso Cuaron could Ang Lee himself in to another two-time Best Director winner without the film for which he's nominated winning Best Picture, which would mean four of the six past winners would be the same two men. Alejandro G. Inarritu won back to back Oscars for Birdman and The Revenant, with Cuaron winning for Gravity just before him.
Even if Yorgas Lanthimos gets in, I don't the Academy is itching to give him an Oscar. Barry Jenkins or Steve McQueen could become the first Black director to win the Oscar. And Ryan Coogler can't be underestimated either for Black Panther.
Joel Edgerton could be a surprise inclusion for Boy Erased though the screenplay and performances will likely get most of the attention.
Best Actress
Lady Gaga appears to be the front-runner at this point for A Star is Born, playing a role which also garnered Judy Garland an Oscar. The fact Gaga will likely also be nominated for Best Original Song could lead academy members to vote for her in that category instead. If Glenn Close gets nominated for The Wife, it'll be her 7th career nomination and fourth for Best Actress. She's arguably the most overdue actress in Hollywood; even if she's the film's only nomination- like Julianne Moore in Still Alice- the good will towards her and overdue narrative could finally snag her the prize.
It appears Coleman will go lead for The Favourite. If Gaga and Close split, Coleman could come up the middle and win.
Yalitza Aparicio is getting tons of praise for her performance in Roma. She's a pre-school teacher who was discovered by Cuaron for this film. She'll perhaps end up taking the exciting newcomer slot in the Best Actress race.
Melissa McCarthy is also in contention for her dramatic-comic performance as real life literary document forger Lee Israel in Can You Ever Forgive Me? McCarthy was nominated in Best Supporting Actress for her breakthrough performance in Bridesmaids and is due to make a return for an against type performance.
Julia Roberts is building up buzz as the mother of a drug addict attempting to stay clean in Ben is Back, though the mixed reaction to the film may hurt her chances.
Nicole Kidman's performance in Destroyer- as a LAPD detective who is dealing with a past case that still haunts her- sounds like the kind of transformative performance which garners Oscar nominations and this probably the case where the performance is the film.
I have Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex, the Ruth Bader Ginsberg biopic, outside the top five. I have a feeling the film may not be that good and Jones appears to be miscast.
Best Actor
Cooper has been nominated twice in this category and once in Supporting Actor. His performance in A Star in Born is said to be his best. And having such a big hand in bringing this film to the big screen- directing the film and writing his own songs- could help him win this category. The Academy clearly likes him and it feels he'll walk away with something come Oscar night.
Ryan Gosling is also looking at his third Best Actor nomination for playing Neil Armstrong in First Man. While Claire Foy has gotten most of the acting praise as Janet Armstrong, as with La La Land, the love for the film could carry him to a nomination.
Willem Dafoe, who was an early front runner in Best Supporting Actor for The Florida Project last year- before Sam Rockwell gained momentum- could be receiving his first Best Actor nomination and fourth overall nomination as Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity's Gate. I see Dafoe ending up as the overdue actor in this category, and sentiment left over from last year will also help.
Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney is the type of performance the Academy still leans toward (see Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour), though a movie about Cheney is a tough sell.
Jason Reitman's The Frontrunner, starring Hugh Jackman as Gary Hart, the senator caught in a sex scandal during the 1988 Presidential Election, has received mostly lukewarm reviews, with most praise given to Jackman. This feels more like a Golden Globe/possibly SAG nominee than a Oscar-nominated one.
Steve Carell stands a chance of getting his second Best Actor nominee for playing the father of a drug addict in Beautiful Boy. A very different kind of role than his previous nominated turn in Foxcatcher, the film sounds like it's using Carell's every-man likability to good use.
Best Supporting Actress
Foy is perhaps the Alicia Vikander of this year, the one to beat for Best Supporting Actress for her portrayal of Janet Armstrong. Emma Stone is probably her closest challenger if she campaigns in this category and not lead. However, will the Academy want to give her a second Oscar so soon? I feel she'll end up like Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle the year after she won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook. If Amy Adams-playing Lynne Cheney- gets a nomination, she'll either ride the overdue wave or have to wait another year for an Oscar. Regina King is getting great reviews for her performance in If Beale Street Could Talk. I think the veteran actress is on her way to her first nomination.
Elizabeth Debicki is said to be a standout in Widows so look out for her possibly getting her first nomination as well.
Nicole Kidman could see herself returning to his category for Boy Erased, two years after getting nominated for Lion.
It sounds like Rachel Weisz may be the one the of the trio from The Favorite without a nomination but I wouldn't count her out completely.
Best Supporting Actor
Likable veteran actor Sam Elliot has never been nominated but that could change with his role in A Star is Born. This category likes to honour veterans and I could see him winning, given this feels like less competitive category this year.
Timothee Chalmet is still perhaps too young to win but his performance in Beautiful Boy could make him another Timothy Hutton.
Get Out's Daniel Kaluuya has gotten comparisons to Javier Bardem's portrayal of Anton Chigurh for his performance in Widows, which has gotten me even more excited to see the film; though, like Debicki, we'll have how Widows fares as the race goes on.
Richard E. Grant is said to have great chemistry with McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and he's already considered a likely nomination, along with Ben Foster in Leave No Trace.
Best Original Screenplay
I'd love to see Boots Riley get nominated for his truly original and bizarre Sorry to Bother You. The Lobster was nominated in this category, so I can't see why this can't.
Speaking of The Lobster, The Favourite may end up being the favourite to win in this category. A Best Picture nominee is often honoured in at least one of the screenplay categories a Best Picture nominee. Cuaron could also win here for his Roma screenplay.
Eighth Grade is one of the year's best reviewed films and this category is its best shot at a nomination.
Best Adapted Screenplay
First Man could win here, especially given it was written by Josh Singer, who won Best Original Screenplay for Spotlight. Jenkins could also win his second in this category for If Beale Street Could Talk. But if the love for A Star is Born is strong this may be another category it takes in a sweep.
Writer/director Nicole Holofcener has never been nominated for an Oscar; winning for her Can You Ever Forgive Me? screenplay could be the upset that's actually not that upsetting.
Best Cinematography
If Cuaron were to win in this category for Roma, it'd be the first black and white film to win since Schindler's List.
Linus Sandgren is going for his second nomination and win after La La Land with First Man. Robbie Ryan, who has been working since the early 90s, is looking at his first nomination and possible win for The Favourite.
James Laxton, who photographed Moonlight, will again be facing off against Sandgren for If Beale Street Could Talk.
And of course, A Star is Born will also be contending in this category. Matthew Libatique hasn't been nominated since Black Swan. It'll be a welcome return and he might end up winning.
Other Categories
Best Film Editing:
First Man
A Star is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
The Favourite
Best Costume Design:
The Favorite
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Sound Mixing/Editing:
First Man
A Star is Born
Black Panther
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Ready Player One
Best Score:
First Man
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Visual Effects:
First Man
Ready Player One
Aquaman
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Make-up/Hairstyling:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Colette
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
So, those are my thoughts on how the race is shaping up. Though of course it's still in the race. So, what are your thoughts on the Oscar race. Comment below and let me know.
