For film fans, the most important season isn't Halloween or Christmas, it's Oscar season. As much as I disagree with the Oscars' choices for nominees and winners, every year I get sucked back in to the race, the predictions, the controversies and the surprises. As I've done before, I want to go through the major categories and give my thoughts on the likely nominees and the dark horses.
Best Picture/Director
While things may change by the time we get deep in to the season, I think the two films going head to head for Best Picture are the opuses by Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino- The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood, respectively. The idea of Scorsese going for his second Best Director Oscar and Tarantino possibly winning his first (he's won two for Original Screenplay) is exciting. I thought Silence deserved more love from the Academy and The Irishman will likely be the polar opposite, getting plenty of nominations, in the same way Shutter Island was ignored and then Hugo became a huge contender. The Irishman has been called Scorsese's Unforgiven, a director looking back at his history in the genre, with Clint Eastwood it was the Western, with Scorsese, the gangster lifestyle.
OUATIH is Tarantino's most humane film since Jackie Brown and perhaps his most personal. Hollywood loves films about itself and the film is a love letter to bygone era as well as Tarantino offering an "what if" question of what Hollywood would look like if the Manson cult hadn't succeeded in their murder spree. This combination of nostalgia and a "happy ending" could really take it all the way.
Then there's Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story, which provides an alternative to the two aforementioned epics. The film is an intimate drama about a divorce between Nicole (Scarlett Johansson) and Charlie (Adam Driver') and it's already received critical acclaim across the board. The film feels like the Lady Bird of this year. I don't know that it can win but it could come up the middle if there's a strong divide between The Irishman and OUATIH. Baumbach has been nominated once for Best Screenplay (2005's The Squid and the Whale) and everything points to him getting his first Best Director nomination.
I think those three are as of now the three big contenders. Then there's Parasite, Bong Joon Ho's highly praised drama that many have called the best film of 2019. It's a lock for Best Foreign Language film and like last year's Roma it will likely end up in the Best Picture race.
Sam Mendes hasn't been nominated since winning for American Beauty nearly two decades ago, despite directing baity films like Road to Perdition and Revolutionary Road but that could change with 1917, his World War I film that's been shot and edited to look like one shot. It sounds like Dunkirk if it was Birdman and I think the Academy will really go for it based on it being a technical marvel.
JoJo Rabbit, Taika Waititi's satire about a boy in Nazi Germany whose imaginary friend is Adolf Hitler, sounds like such an oddball film. However, we're in a different place now with the Oscars where their tastes have broadened. This film is so strikingly bizarre it'll be hard to ignore.
The big dark horse of the season is Joker, which reinvents the most famous super villain in comic book history from the ground-up. Black Panther broke the Superhero glass ceiling by getting a Best Picture nomination and Joker could follow suit. And if Joaquin Phoenix is going to be the Best Actor front-runner, it'd be odd for the film not to be nominated. The last time a Best Actor winner wasn't in a Best Picture nominee was Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Todd Phillips is an even bigger dark horse for Best Director.
Jay Roach's Bombshell, which chronicles the Fox News sexual assault scandal, is getting good early buzz and could be the Best Picture winner of the #metoo movement. Roach feels like Adam McKay getting nominated for The Big Short, a director known for comedies who makes a topical drama that gets respect from the Academy. Though to be fair, Roach has been doing this kind of material on TV>
Greta Gerwig's Little Women is still a question mark. I get the sense it could be a sophomore slump for Gerwig after Lady Bird. It's just feels unexciting as a project.
Best Actress
Renee Zellwegger winning for playing Judy Garland in Judy would be a really safe choice but the Academy does love transformative performances, especially when the actor is playing a real person. In that regard Zellwegger's closest competition may be Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. Scarlett Johansson, like Marriage Story itself, is an alternative to these performances. And unlike Zellwegger and Theron, Johansson has never won.
Even if Little Women isn't great, voters love Saoirse Ronan and she could be looking at her fourth nomination and third in this category.
Joaquin Phoenix is my favourite working actor and I think he should've won for The Master and been nominated and won for Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far On Foot. He could possibly dominate the season for Joker. I think he'll benefit from the overdue narrative and the strength of his career overall.
I think it may be too early for Leonardo DiCaprio to win a second Oscar but he'll be nominated for his very funny performance in OUATIH.
Marriage Story keeps feeling like the alternative choice. I don't see Adam Driver, winning but he's a sure bet to get his second Oscar nomination after being nominated in Best Supporting Actor for BlacKkKlansman last year.
Robert De Niro is up for The Irishman and this could be the last time to honor an acting legend.
Jonathan Pryce has yet to be nominated and could be looking at his first for The Two Popes, written by Anthony McCarten. McCarten has written the screenplay for three Best Actors thus far: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour and Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. The story of The Two Popes centers around the relationship between Pope Benedict (Anthony Hopkins) and the future Pope Francis (Pryce).
Taron Egerton stands an outside shot for his portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman as does Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, which has garnered him the best reviews of his career since Punch Drunk Love.
Best Supporting Actress
There's already a debate regarding which movie for which to campaign Margot Robbie: OUATIH or Bombshell. I think she stands a better chance for the latter, given her role in the former is too small and doesn't really have a big Oscar scene. Nicole Kidman, who's also in Bombshell, seems primed for another win in the coming years but I don't think it's her year. She may be left out entirely as she was last year for Boy Erased and Destroyer..
I think Laura Dern could be this year's Patricia Arquette and dominating the season for Marriage Story. She has goodwill and the overdue narrative, plus the acclaimed drama behind her. Speaking of Marriage Story, Johansson could be a double nominee this year if she gets in here for JoJo
Rabbit. Thomasin McKenzie, who deserved a nomination for Leave No Trace last year may get a makeup nomination for JoJo Rabbit as well.
Jennifer Lopez has gotten buzz for Hustlers, being called a reminder of her talent as an actress. If she gets in it's probably be the film's only nomination.
I love Al Pacino and it's great he'll be back in the race for The Irishman. And Joe Pesci too. I'd love to see Pacino win another Oscar. But Brad Pitt could be the won to beat this year for his loose, quintessentially movie-star performance in OUATIH.
It continues to be so strange Tom Hanks hasn't been nominated since Castaway. He feels like he should be like Meryl Streep, getting nominated every other year. I think it's because he makes it look so easy so it's easy to take him for granted. His casting as Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood felt perfect even before the trailer- which itself is a tear jerker- was released. This could finally bring Hanks back. The film's director, Marielle Heller, directed Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant to nominations for last year's Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Taika Waititi, aside from writing and directing JoJo Rabbit, also co-stars as the imaginary Adolf Hitler. It'd be one of the most outlandish performances ever nominated; but like I said about the movie, it's a performance that's hard to ignore.
Chrisitian Bale could also pop up for James Mangold's Ford v. Ferrari. He was nominated this year for Vice and this could be an afterglow nomination.
John Lithgow, who's way overdue for a nomination, is a possible contender for playing Roger Ailes in Bombshell. Covered in make-up and essentially playing the villain, it's the type of role the Academy eats up.
Best Original Screenplay
Is this Noah Baumbach's to lose? Unless voters want to give Quentin Tarantino a third Best Original Screenplay Oscar.
Bong Joon-Ho will likely be a multiple nominee this year, with nominations for Director, Picture, Foreign Language and here in screenplay.
I'd like to see Jordan Peele nominated here for Us but I don't think that film hit off the same way Get Out did.
I can honestly see Rian Johnson's script for Knives Out getting in here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Waititi's screenplay for Jojo Rabbit, based on Christine Leunens' novel, could have its best chance to win here.
McCarten has been nominated three times thus far and is looking at a fourth for The Two Popes, based on his play. McCarten specializes in dramatizing real life events and it's worked our for him so far.
If The Irishman really sweeps, Steve Zaillian's screenplay, based on former lawyer Charles Brandt's narrative nonfiction account of hitman Frank "The Irishman" Sheeran, could be the front runner, with Zaillian his second Oscar, his first since Schindler's List.
Other Categories
Cinematography: Roger Deakins- 1917, Rodrigo Prieto- The Irishman, Robert Richardson- OUATIH, Hong Gyeong-Pyo- Parasite, Robbie Ryan- Marriage Story,
Editing: Chris Dickens- Rocketman, Thelma Schoonmaker- The Irishman, Fred Raskin- OUATIH, Jennifer Lame- Marriage Story,
Score: Randy Newman- Marriage Story, Seann Sara Sella- The Irishman, Hildur Guonadittor- Joker, Michael Giacchino- JoJo Rabbit
So, those are my basic thoughts on the race thus far. Who do you think will be nominated? Who should be nominated? Comment below and let me know.
