My Favourite Best Picture Winners

Spoilers Below 

In my last post I wrote about 10 films which didn't get nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Now, I want to discuss my favourite winners in this category, ones where I think the Academy got it (pretty much) right. The Oscars are always a fascinating snapshot in time. They're reflective of what people liked in the moment more than what lasts. But these films certainly have. So, let's get on with the list.

Casablanca

The late Roger Ebert once wrote of Carol Reed's The Third Man, that more than any film he had seen it embodied the romance of going to the movies. I feel that way about Casablanca. From its witty and poignant script, to the intrigue, the romance and its heroic finale, Casablanca has everything. It's pretty much a perfect film, maybe the best film to come out of the golden age of Hollywood. Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman, even if they had never starred in anything else significant, would still be immortalizes forever as Rick Blaine and Ilsa Lund. Rick is the cynical cafe owner, Ilsa is the woman he loved and left him because she was secretly married to resistance leader Victor Lazlo, and whom walks back in to his life. Rick. who's in possession of stolen letters of transit, is the only one who can help Ilsa and Victor out of Casablanca. But will his torch for Ilsa stop him from doing so? Yes, we know he'll do the right thing but its how we get there that matters. 

Lawrence of Arabia

The king of al epic movies, only rivaled by The Lord of The Rings, if you count that as one movie. The reason I call Lawrence of Arabia such is it's a great character study as well as a technical marvel. You have movies like the Star Wars prequels which  are conceptually and technically impressive but character and story-wise needed some script refining. And then you have certain superhero films which have some great character stuff but are compromised by formula, weak spectacle and uninteresting direction- but with Lawrence of Arabia, neither the character work or the grand-scale filmmaking feel anything less than stellar.. Another thing thing that impresses about the film is how effectively it both romanticizes T.E Lawrence while also portraying him as a complex, sometimes terrifying figure whom the audience is free to interpret the character, the man, however they like. In the greatest screen debut in cinema history, Peter O'Toole is beautiful, almost feminine, giving a performance that combines grace and madness. This is a mythic and majestic film.

The Godfather and The Godfather Part II

The great epic of American cinema, and still the only time a film and its sequel have both won Best Picture. It's hard to imagine that feat ever being replicated. I guess it's cheating to list both Godfathers under one heading but they compliment each other so well and tell one sprawling story that it makes sense to list them side by side. Michael Corleone's (Al Pacino) transformation from war hero and the good son who didn't want to become part of the family business to ruthless mob boss who will murder his own brother for his act of betrayal is possibly cinema's greatest character arc. That Pacino didn't win for either is one of Oscar's greatest travesties. Michael's arc is complimented by Part II's showing of how his father Vito went from orphan in Sicily to Don in turn of the century New York. These flashback add to the sprawling nature of the narrative, with Marlon Brando and Robert De Niro both winning Oscars for their performance as the Don. 

Director Francis Ford Coppola and novelist Mario Puzo, working from Puzo's popular novel, took the gangster film and put it on a Shakespearean scale while creating a lived in world with authentic people. The films are operatic yet subtle and nuanced. They also transport us back in time to early 1900s New York, post war New York and late 1950s Havana, just before revolution. These are simply unrivaled feats of filmmaking from the Hollywood studio system.

The Silence of the Lambs

The last film to win the top five Oscars (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay), and one that has only gotten better with age. While Anthony Hopkins is iconic as Dr. Hannibal Lecter, it's Jodie Foster as F.B.I trainee Clarice Sterling, on the trail of serial killer Buffalo Bill (Ted Levine) who gives this film its grounding and heart.  The film's director, the late Jonathan Demme, was a master of the close-up, using them to show the perspective of characters looking at each other. The film blends the gothic and realistic in such a way that we accept them both as existing in the same world. And again, it's Foster who grounds the whole thing.

The Apartment

The optimistic cynic, Billy Wilder, along with his longtime collaborator, I.A.L Diamond, crafted a perfect screenplay for The Apartment, the story of C.C. "Bud" Baxter, an office worker who lends his apartment to his superiors for their extramarital affair. It's already a difficult situation for Bud, having to spend nights out in the cold, getting him sick. Things get more complicated when he discovers his boss Jeff Sheldrake (Fred MacMurray) is having an affair with Elevator girl Fran Kubelik (Shirley MacLaine), the object of Bud's affection. All of this could be contrived but Wilder and Diamond's script, along with Wilder's direction, create believable characters whose actions make sense, even in a scenario such as this. It's established that this whole apartment lending situation started out with just one guy wanting to use Bud's apartment and then escalated to many men at the office wanting to use the apartment, with Bud using it to his advantage, being granted perks by the higher-ups. Bud is selling his soul but Lemmon is such a likable and sympathetic everyman that we aren't immediately offput by his actions. Bud's not a bad guy and we can see how we could end up in a predicament like this. 

I always feel that Wilder's dramas were very funny and his comedies very dark. The Apartment walks the line between comedy and drama so expertly that that it feels unbalanced. And like many other Wilder films, it ends on the perfect note.

No Country For Old Men

I just re-watched this and man does it hold up. This is a fantastic movie that's only gotten better with age. It's one of the perfect matches of source material (Cormac McCarthy's novel) and filmmakers (the Coen brothers). From their first film, Blood Simple (1984), the Coens have played around with genre conventions, creating films that both belong in their respective genres but also exist somewhat outside them. There's an offbeat quality to their work, with No Country For Old Men being populated by familiar types who are also different from anyone else we've encountered before. Hit man Anton Chigurh (Javier Bardem in an Oscar winning performance), with his weird haircut and pre-occupation with a coin toss- a flip of faith- is one of the most unusual villains in recent memory, genuinely terrifying whenever he shows up. Llewelyn Moss (Josh Brolin) is the "good old boy" who's smarter than we may at first realize, a character who would be a supporting player, killed off pretty early in another film but takes center stage here. And then there's Sheriff Ed Tom Bell (Tommy Lee Jones), who we assume is maybe going to be killed when he catches up to Chigurh, but narrowly misses him. 

The movie sets us a up for a showdown between Moss (Josh Brolin), who has stolen 2 million from a drug deal gone bad, and  Chigurh but Moss is killed offscreen,  and the final scene is Bell (Tommy Lee Jones) talks to his wife about two dreams he had- "Then I woke up" is the final line, cutting to black. There's no satisfying resolution to anything. It's a bleak but it fits the noir style, where there are no heroes or heroic endings. The villain gets away and the survivor, Bell, retires because he doesn't know how to deal with the new kind of evil he's seeing in the world now, though ultimately this kind of evil, the evil Chigurh represents, has been forever, with Chigurh being a devil/grim reaper figure, haunting the whole film

Amadeus 

Maybe it's my own feeling of mediocrity that makes Amadeus the most relatable film to be, but I think it's also a brilliant idea to tell the story of a great artist through the perspective of the bitter rival who wasn't as great. Peter Shaffer's play was the basis for Milos Foreman's glorious film, one of the best of the 80s, a decade that's not one of my favourite, despite some great films. F. Murray Abraham, received a Best Actor Oscar for his performance as the proud but jealous and old-fashioned Antonio Salieri, while Tom Hulce was nominated for his performance along Abraham for his mischievous performance as Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. Mozart is childish but also serious when it comes to music. The fact that such an immature young man could be so talent enrages Salieri but he but he feels guilt for Mozart's death, believing he killed him.

On the Waterfront

If you were going to ask me what my favourite performance of all time is, I would say Marlon Brando's Oscar wining performance as Terry Malloy in Elia Kazan's On the Waterfront. This is Brando at the peak of his physical beauty and acting abilities. While A Streetcar Named Desire established his image, and The Godfather his most iconic, On the Waterfront is his most sensitive and tender work, masculine but feminine. Movies are time capsules that can keep an actor forever young in their prime, and that's what this film is for me when it comes to Brando. 

Of course, the film's director, Elia Kazan, was the ultimate actors' director, his films being defined by a rawer, more naturalistic style of acting, and the film is full of other superb performances, including Eva Marie Saint (who won Best Supporting Actress), Lee J. Cobb, Karl Malden and Rod Steiger When Kazan won an honorary Oscar in the late 90s (on of Oscar's most controversial moments), Martin Scorsese called Kazan a poetic realist, and you can see why just by looking at this film, which blends realism with stylish flourishes. 

The story is that of  Malloy, who testifies against the mob boss (Cobb) who runs the docks. Malloy has to decide between loyalty to this father figure and doing the right thing, which could lead to redemption for Malloy after being involved in the murder of another dock worker.

Rebecca

Hitchcock's first film in America, and the only Hitchcock film to win Best Picture (Hitchcock's other 1940 film Foreign Correspondent was also nominated) and on Hitchcock attributed more to producer David. O Selznick than himself. However, the Hitchcock is not absent in this entertaining gothic melodrama, base Daphne Du Maurier's splendid novel (one of my favourites), about a  unnamed woman (Joan Fontaine) who marries a rich widower, Max de Winter (Laurence Oliver), who former wife's presence still haunts his home of Manderley. Fontaine and Oliver were both nominated for their performances (Fontaine would win the next year for another Hitchcock film, Suspicion, with Cary . Grant) and Judith Anderson is sublimely creepy as Manderley's housemaid Mrs. Danvers, who still adores Rebecca. I wrote more about the film here: Davies in the Dark: The Essential Films: "Rebecca" (1940) (thenoirzone.blogspot.com)  

So, what are your favourite Best Picture winners? Comment and let me know. 

11 Great Films That Were Not Nominated For The Best Picture Oscar

Spoilers Below

The history of the Oscars tell their own narrative regarding the greatest films in the history of the medium. While what we consider great is subjective, the Oscars, I would argue, provide a limited view of cinematic greatness. Genre films are often left out, actors of color ignored, great actors and directors never won. But specifically, I wanted to take a moment and look at 11 films that were not nominated for Best Picture, films which have lived on longer some winners. Some may surprise you, but I think it's important to understand why certain films were not appreciated in their moment, that it took time for them to attain classic stature. So, let's get started. These aren't in specific order, but I will be starting with three by a director who never got his due from Oscar.

1. Rear Window  (1954)

Alfred Hitchcock is defined by his dark and twisted portrayals of human nature in the guise of entertaining Hollywood thrillers. One of the most purely entertaining of films, Rear Window isn't just about whether a man has killed his wife, it's about a peeping tom, kind of a pervert, and the human desire to watch. The film is essentially  a meta commentary on cinema in general, on the need for excitement in our ordinary lives. 

We're watching L.B "Jeff" Jefferies, a photographer who's in a cast, stuck in his apartment (after being injured taking a picture of a race car crash) watch his neighbours in the courtyard of apartments, everyone with a story, an entire universe in and of itself. He needs these stories the same way we need films, which give us the ability to view other peoples' lives (albeit fictional). When Jeff suspects businessman Lars Thorwold (Raymond Burr) of killing his invalid wife, his obsession with proving his guilt gives him the ultimate reprieve from boredom, even bringing him closer to his socialite girlfriend Lisa Friedmont (Grace Kelly). But as much as the film deals with the investigation of Thorwold, the other apartment dwellers are just as important. All these people become as familiar to us as they are to Jeff. 

Hitchcock would get a Best Director nomination for the technical brilliance on display ( the whole film is shot on a set, with Hitchcock giving directions via earpiece to his actors), as well as nominations for Best Writing- Screenplay, Color Cinematography, and Best Sound Recording, but oddly not Best Picture. The five nominees were On the Waterfront, The Caine Mutiny, Seven Wives For Seven Brothers, The Country Girl (for which Kelly won Best Actress), and Three Coins in the Fountain. On the Waterfront was the winner, with its director, Elia Kazan, winning Best Director. For me, I would split the two, giving Hitchcock Director and On the Waterfront Picture. 

2. Psycho (1960)

Hitchcock once again received a Best Director nomination (his last) for this proto-slasher film, but without the film getting in to Best Picture. And like Rear Window, it also received four nominations (Hitchcock, Best Supporting Actress for Janet Leigh, B&W Cinematography, and Best Art Direction-Set Decoration (B&W). 

While the film can be argued to be the first modern slasher film, pre-dating Black Christmas and Halloween by nearly 20 years, it starts out as a film noir about real-estate Marion secretary Crane (Janet Leigh) stealing a client's money so she can start a new life with her boyfriend. She winds up at the Bates Motel, where the whole dynamic shifts with the introduction of proprietor Norman Bates (Anthony Perkins). The film seems to have- like Marion- taken a detour as we spend a lengthy conversation between the two over supper. Norman is a sad and lonely man who's only relationship is with his invalid mother. 

When Marion is killed in the infamous shower scene it's the film's first interjection of horror, upsetting the narrative we thought we were watching. The sequence is still startling in its violence and impressive in its filmmaking. George Tomasini's sharp editing reflects the knife going in to Marion's body and Bernard Herrmann's screeching score has become synonymous with 'crazy.' The film has spent so much time with Marion that the sudden burst of violence unsettles. There's only 2 murder scenes in the film- this and the murder of Private Investigator Arboghast (Martin Balsam) bu the film relies more on atmosphere and build-up to create a sense of subtle horror in the audiences' mind. 

It's revealed Norman killed his mother and her lover and took on a split personality- he and his mother. The film was never about the money or Marion, it was about Norman's psychosis, with every thing else being a distraction from the truth about Norman  Perkins' performance is so convincing that he could never escape the role. Perkins is deeply sympathetic as Norman; I never view him as the film's villain but as a tragic character, despite the horrible crimes he commits. 

Hitchcock's direction displays his mastery of visual storytelling and his ability to place us n the minds of both Marion and Norman, two people who are closer in spirit than either of them realizes, two people who are tragically torn apart by "mother."  

The Best Picture Nominees that year were The Apartment, The Alamo, Elmer Gantry, Sons and Lovers, and The Sundowners. The winner was The Apartment, which, like On the Waterfront, is one my favourite Best Picture winners. Again, I would give Hitchcock the directing Oscar (Billy Wilder won), while giving Best Picture to The Apartment.

3. Vertigo  

Yes, another Hitchcock, but probably the biggest one to be left out of Best Picture. Not surprisingly, since Vertigo took many years to earn the critical acclaim it now enjoys. The film which was voted the greatest of all time by Sight & Sound back in 2012, and holds at # 2 in 2023, only got two Oscar nominations, for Best Art Direction-Set Decoration and Best Sound. Bernard Herrmann's swooningly melancholic and romantic score, James Stewart and Kim Novak's layered performances, Hitchcock's visionary direction, all ignored. And I get it, I get in 1958 why this was seen as a misfire, why it takes a rewatch or two to really appreciate this film. It took me a second viewing to begin to embrace it. It's probably Hitchcock's most purely artistic and audacious film, one whose D.N.A can be found in other films like David Lynch's Mulholland Drive, George Sluizer's The Vanishing, and Brian De Palma's Obsession. But despite being the influence behind several films, the story remains fresh and unique in the way it moves from ghost story to romance and finally, to obsession. 

It's the story of an acrophobic detective, Scottie Ferguson (Stewart). hired by a old college friend, Gavin Elster, (Tom Helmor)  to follow his wife, Madeleine (Novak), whom he believes has been possessed by the ghost of her great-grandmother. Scottie falls in love with Madeleine but fails to stop his suicide. Afterwards meets another woman named Judy (Novak), who looks like Madeleine, whom he tries to make over in to the image of his dead love. 

Vertigo has an hypnotic power that brings me back time and again, and time is a big theme in the film. Scottie didn't get to Madeleine in time, the past is coming back to haunt Madeleine and then Scottie, near the film's end Scottie says he needs to do one thing to be free of the past.        

The nominees that year were Gigi, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, Auntie Mame, The Defiant Ones, and Separate Tables, with Gigi being the winner (its director Vincente Minnelli won Best Director), which I've still have yet to see.

4. The Searchers

John Ford had already won 4 Oscars for directing by the time he did the The Searchers, and a fifth one wouldn't have been out of the question, except Ford and the film were completely shut out at the Oscars (Ford did get a DGA nomination, however), which now seems inexplicable considering The Searchers stature as an American classic. It's a difficult film to reconcile, a story dealing with racism that also still has some racist leanings, but it nonetheless a great film, though I still prefer Stagecoach. John Wayne plays Ethan Edwards, a confederate soldier returning to his brothers' home after the Civil War. When his brother Aaron, and Aaron's wife are murdered by Comanche Native Americans,, Edwards, along with his adopted nephew Martin (Jeffrey Hunter) go off in pursuit of Ethan's kidnapped nieces. 

The film, courtesy of Ford cinematographer of Winton C. Hoch, has some of the striking visuals of any western, capturing what director John Milius said felt to him what the real American west was like. And even with the many revisionist westerns that followed, The Searchers still feels like the most realistic western of its time, especially in terms of its violence, which is still unsettling. The most disturbing aspect of the film is the notion that Ethan will kill one of his nieces Debby (Natalie Wood) after she's "gone native" living with the Comanches for several films (the other, Lucy (Pippa Scott) was killed). 

Wayne plays his most complex role in a performance that, as Martin Scorsese said, makes you hate him but still love him when he returns Debbie home by film's end. And of course, there's that great closing shot of him walking away, as a door closes, bookending the opening door at the beginning. It's wistful and, honourable and poetic. 

The nominees that year where Around the World in 80 Days, Giant, Friendly Persuasion, The King & I, and The Ten Commandments. Around the World in 80 Days, directed by Michael Anderson and produced by Elizabeth Taylor's then husband Mike Todd, who would die a year later in a plane crash. The extravagant film is probably one of the weaker Best Picture winners but is still worth seeing for the sheer scale of it, it's a fascinating time capsule. 

5. Days of Heaven

After establishing his esoteric sensibilities in Badlands (1973), Terrence Malick came back with his voice and style fully formed with Days of Heaven, one of the most ravishing films of all time. It won the Oscar for Best Cinematography- given to Nestor Almendros, though Haxell Wexler took over after after Almendros had to fulfill his commitment to shooting Francois Trauffaut's The Man Who Loved Women.

Taking what 20 years earlier what would've been a 3 hour plus epic, Malick strips down the story of a Chicago steelworker, Bill (Richard Gere) on the run after killing his boss, his sister Linda (Linda Manz), his girlfriend Abby (Brooke Adams), and the dying farmer (Sam Shepherd) Abby marries, in a compact 90 minutes, showing us the fragments of a story through an impressionistic visual style that favours mood and setting over complex characterization.  

The nominees that year were The Deer Hunter, Coming Home, Heaven Can Wait, Midnight Express, and An Unmarried Woman. The Deer Hunter won, which I'm ashamed to say I still haven't seen.

6. Alien 

Ridley Scott's Alien has only gotten better in age, a genuine masterpiece of horror sci fi. The story is so simple but what it's doing is difficult, essentially blending the slow pace of 2001, the lived in junky feel of Star Wars, and the grisliness of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, all while updating a 50s sci-fi creature and placing it in an symbolic haunted house. The alien could've looked goofy, the setting cheap, the pace too slow, but this didn't happen. The pace is slow but with a great sense of dread. The alien is kept in the shadows so we only get glimpses of it and the production design is immaculate, making us believe in the film's unglamorous vision of the future.

A brilliant choice by the film's screenplay- by Dan O'Bannon, with a story by Ronald Shusett-  is conceiving the ensemble of characters as "truckers in space" rather than explorers or scientists.  The characters have a lived-in-ness, a believability as blue collar workers. Them being truckers is also why the Nostromo is so junky- this isn't supposed to be the Enterprise. Michael Seymour's production design and Derek Vanlint's cinematography make the Nostromo one of the most atmospheric settings in horror cinema. 

Like the shower scene in Psycho, the chestburster sequence hasn't lost its shocking impact. Both scenes happen just when things feel like they're getting better, in moments of peace. When Captain Dallas (Tom Skerritt) is killed, it really feels like things are at their worst. And then Ash (Ian Holm) is revealed as an android who has been working against them, leaving only Ripley (Sigourney Weaver), Parker (Yaphet Khotto) and Lambert (Veronica Cartwright), the feeling of claustrophobia is palpable. 

Weaver became a star for her performance as Ripley, giving her assertiveness, sternness but also vulnerability. Her fear during the final stretch of the film feels authentic and her decision to go back and save the cat is a relatable human moment  Her ultimate survival is almost surprising, given this was the decade of the downer ending but it's not completely triumphant either. She's lost her ship and crew, and has found out she was viewed as expendable by the company for which she works. Still, there is a sense of peace for Ripley at the film's end, as she goes back in to cryosleep, going back in to a dream after a nightmare

The nominees that year were Apocalypse Now, Kramer vs. Kramer, All That Jazz, Breaking Away, and Norma Rae. I personally would go with All That Jazz.

7. The Innocents

Completely shut out of the Oscars, though nominated for the Palme d'Or, this is the spookiest film ever made, as well as the best haunted house movie. Governess Miss Giddens? (Deborah Kerr, in a performance that should've earned her an Oscar nomination) is sent to look after two orphaned children , Miles and Flora, whose uncle has no use for them. After learning about the influence of the late Peter Quint and Miss Jessel on the children, Miss Giddens begins to see apparitions that match their descriptions. She soon comes to the conclusion these ghosts are controlling the children. 

The ambiguity surrounding whether Miss Giddens is actually seeing the ghosts or imagining them is what keeps The Innocents so fascinating 60 years after it premiered. Cinematographer Freddie Francis' Widescreen black and white compositions are immaculate and director Jack Clayton captures a certain Victorian-era Britishness in the performances and characters. The film's chilly atmosphere also makes it-like Stanley Kubrick's The Shining- a perfect alternative Christmas film.

The nominees that year were West Side Story, The Hustler, Fanny, The Guns of Navarone, and Judgement at Nuremberg, with West Side Story winning, along with nine other wins. I prefer Spielberg's new West Side Story (My thoughts here :Davies in the Dark: Tonight, Tonight: "West Side Story" (thenoirzone.blogspot.com) and if I were picking from these nominees I would go with The Hustler (which I wrote about here: Davies in the Dark: Search results for the hustler (thenoirzone.blogspot.com)

8. Carrie

Brian De Palma's masterpiece is also the first Stephen King adaptation and one of the best. A hallucinatory film, but one that has moments of sweetness that only make the tragedy of its climax hit even harder.

 Carrie may be the best film about teenage isolation ever made. Despite being incredibly stylized the film finds emotional truth through Sissy Spacek's nominated performance as Carrie White.  What stood out watching it this time is how Spacek makes Carrie both incredibly unusual but also very sweet and nice. We see her coming out of her shell as things being to go- and then when she's humiliated she really comes out of her shell as she unleashes her telekinetic powers against her tormenters. 

The whole prom sequence and how it leads to the pig blood pouring over Carrie is virtuoso filmmaking. In De Palma fashion it feels like he's showing off but you don't mind because it's so impressive. Then there's Carrie's return home and her final confrontation with her religious zealot mother, Margaret (Piper Laurie, in the film's other nominated perfomances), another amazing stretch of filmmaking. This is one of those films you could watch on mute and still understand what's happening.  The emotions and story are all communicated through the visuals. 

Mario Tosi's cinematography gives the film a hazy dreamlike quality that turns in to a nightmare during the prom sequence- and Carrie covered in blood is one cinema's indelible images.  

The nominees that year were Rocky, Taxi Driver, All The President's Men, Network, and Bound For Glory. Bound for Glory is the only one I haven't see but it's a pretty strong line-up overall. 

9. Close Encounters of the Third Kind

My second favourite Spielberg, right behind Jaws. This is also the ultimate Spielberg film, made a couple of years after Jaws, with his voice fully formed. He received his first Best Director nomination (the only time he and pal George Lucas were nominated alongside each other- Lucas was nominated for Star Wars). The film was beat out in most categories by Star Wars, though it won Best Cinematography for Vilmos Zsigmond's stellar work on the film and won a special award for sound effect editing.

It's a darker film then you may remember, with Roy Neary (Richard Dreyfuss) becoming obsessed with U.F.Os after a close encounter with one and alienating his family. But it's also awe-inspiring and wonderous, encapsulating what Spielberg does better than anyone else. It's hard to imagine a blockbuster movie like this getting made now, given it doesn't have a big action climax, but a climax involving the attempt to communicate with an alien mothership. Denis Villenueve's Arrival is the only equivalent I can think of.

Dreyfuss won for The Goodbye Girl (which I haven't seen) but I also would argue he could've been nominated for this instead, making Roy a relatable and likable character even as he becomes more unhinged.

The nominees that year were Annie Hall, Star Wars, The Turning Point, Julia, and The Goodbye Girl. Annie Hall was the winner, with Woody Allen winning for direction and screenplay. The film has plenty of baggage attached to it, but it's a very fine winner overall 

10. 2001: A Space Odyssey

Maybe the greatest film not to be nominated for Best Picture, and the best film about contact with alien beings, mostly because we never see them. Stanley Kubrick (who was nominated for Best Director) keeps them mysterious and kind of spooky. The film is a visual marvel (it won Best Visual Effects and it still feels ahead of its time, even as we've long since passed the year in which it takes place. The nominees that year were Oliver!, The Lion in Winter, Funny Girl, Rachel, Rachel, and Romeo & Juliet. Oliver! was the winner, with Carol Reed winning Best Director. I feel Reed should've won for The Third Man instead. Oliver! is okay but I think I would go with The Lion in Winter or Romeo & Juliet

11. Singin' in the Rain

The greatest movie musical of all, and a great film about Hollywood, Stanley Donen and Gene Kelly's Singin' in the Rain is superior to the previous year's Best Picture winner, another Kelly musical, An American in Paris. The film is about Hollywood's transition from silent films to talkies, with movie star Don Lockwood falling in love with chorus girl Kathy Selden (Debby Reynolds), while his screen partner Lina Lamont (Jean Hagen in an Oscar nominated performance), whose shrill voice doesn't make the cut when it comes to talkies, becomes jealous. Donald O'Connor lends support as Don's friend Cosmo Brown, a performance that also should've garnered a Oscar nomination. 

The dancing is off the charts great, the songs funny and poignant, Kelly is at his most charismatic, Hagen is hilarious, and Reynolds becomes a star right before our eyes. It's a truly joyous film, technically brilliant and with a lot of heart. A great example of Hollywood studio filmmaking done right.

The nominees that year were The Quiet Man, The Greatest Show on Earth, High Noon, Ivanoe, and Moulin Rouge. The Greatest Show on Earth won, with John Ford winning for The Quiet Man (his fourth Oscar). The film is usually considered one of the worst- if not the worst film to win Best Picture, though I haven't seen it. For me, I would go with The Quiet Man, maybe my favourite of Ford's films, along with Stagecoach.

So, what films do you think should've been nominated for Best Picture? Comment and let me know.

Some Thoughts on The 2023 Oscars

 I don't want to do too much pre-amble, so let's get to the categories

BEST PICTURE

I've found the last couple of Oscars pretty quiet in terms of the Best Picture line-up. The films nominated- while several of them great- haven't been the films I think general audiences were really interested in. We haven't had a Joker, Black Panther, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or even Little Women or 1917. West Side Story didn't do well at the box office and Dune isn't really a crowd-pleaser. This year, I think that could change. If I was running the Oscar campaign for Paramount, I'd definitely being pushing Top Gun: Maverick for Best Picture, putting a emphasis on the "Movies are back" narrative and it being the biggest movie of the year. I'm wondering if Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water- sequels to Best Picture nominees- could also get in. We usually don't have follow ups to Best Picture nominees but with sequels in general there's always the "Can you do it again?" challenge. If the Academy wants to go for the Indie blockbuster, then Everything, Everywhere, All at Once, is right there. I don't see the older members of the Academy taking to it but with the Oscars trying to be more adventurous in recent years there's a good chance it'll be there.

If they want to go safe, then Steven Spielberg's autobiographical The Fabelmans is right there. Sam Mendes' Empire of Light- about a romance taking place in old movie theatre- also seems a like safe choice. That one stars Olivia Coleman and Colin Firth

Darren Aronofsky's The Whale- starring Brendan Fraser and Andrew Dominick's Blonde- with Ana De Armas as Marilyn Monroe could get in but they may be more acting contenders than Best Picture ones. The Wonder (that other Florence Pugh movie), about an 1800s Irish village where a girl has supposedly not eaten for three months without perishing, is maybe taking the prestige period piece spot though that may also only be an acting play. It won't happen but it would be funny if Don't Worry Darling actually got a Best Picture nominee (and become fourth film to win the top five.) My Policeman (Starring Pugh's DWD co-star Harry Styles) has gotten mixed reviews so I'm not feeling it for Best Picture. 

I just saw The Woman King- a historical action film about the all-woman unit of warriors who protected an African Kingdom in the 1800s. It has the right blend of strong story and rousing action- think Gladiator or Braveheart- that could help get in.  

Then there's Elvis, one of the most popular films of the years about one of the 20th Century's most popular entertainments. I think it could be the Bohemian Rhapsody of the year- especially with Austin Butler being a frontrunner for Best Actor. Like Top Gun: Maverick, the "People are going back to the movies" narrative should be pushed. I don't know if Jordan Peele's Nope has much of a chance in Best Picture (I think it's hard to replicate the impact of Get Out) but it could if campaigned right.

The reviews for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's 8 1/2 inspired  Bardo have been mixed but the Academy does like him so I think it could make it, especially since they T do love films about filmmaking. Florian Zeller's The Son is his follow-up to The Father and definitely has the credentials for a Best Picture nominee (a more traditional one compared to Zeller's previous film) though I have a feeling it's a more of a potential acting player.

Knives Out didn't get in for Best Picture but the reviews for its sequel Glass Onion are just as good or better than its predecessor and the good-will towards the original could push it in to the line-up.

BEST DIRECTOR

I already mentioned Spielberg, who may be looking at his third Best Director Oscar. Can you imagine if James Cameron gets in? That'd be quite the battle of titans. If Top Gun: Maverick gets in I don't see its director, Joseph Kosinki gets in. Ryan Coogler is due a nomination one of these days but I don't know if he's getting in either. Sam Mendes has a shot for Empire of Light seems but the reviews have been mixed- this could just end up being a showcase for the actors to get in.Darren Aronofsky hasn't gotten a nomination since Black Swan but I think The Whale has a strong possibility of bringing him his second nomination, though as I said earlier it may just be an acting contender, similar to Andrew Dominick's chances for Blonde. 

Sarah Polley could become only the eighth woman to be nominated for Best Director for Women Talking. Gina Prince-Bythewood could be the ninth if she gets in for The Woman King. It won't happen but Olivia Wilde for DWD would be an exciting inclusion

Previous Best Director winner Damian Chazelle (the youngest winner in history) is in contention for Babylon, which has been compared to The Wolf of Wall Street. Chazelle didn't get in for First Man, but he'll probably be back in the race for this one. The reviews for Glass Onion are looking good so does Rian Johnson (nominated for Best Original Screenplay for the first film) have a shot at it his first Best Director nomination? It definitely would make certain peoples' heads explode. 

BEST ACTRESS

Despite the weak reviews Florence Pugh has been praised for her performance in DWD. However, she probably has a better shot with The Wonder, though DWD seems like the showier role (and Pugh no doubt can be a showy, actorly and gimmicky performer). I did think it was Pugh's year earlier this year but I'm wondering if she gets left out this year. There's a risk of vote if both performances get plenty of votes. 

I've read that it's Cate Blanchett's Oscar to lose for Tar- Todd Fields' first film since 2006's Little Children, in which she plays a brilliant music conductor. Even without seeing the film, I get why people are saying that. Like Daniel Day-Lewis, Blanchett is unstoppable when she gets a role like this. However, Blanchett might have a challenger in Michelle Yeoh for EEATO. It'd be such a unique performance and performer to win. 

As I've been working on this piece something major happened, which is Michelle Williams going lead for The Fabelmans. I think she had a pretty easy win in Supporting Actress whereas Best Actress is perhaps too competitive. Katy Rich's article on the switch made a satient point that mom characters often get sidelined in to Supporting Actress and Williams going for Best Actress makes a statement that the mom can be a leading character. Whatever happens Williams going lead makes both Actress categories more interesting now. 

I'm hearing Blonde is a really rough watch, so I wonder if that'll hurt Ana De Armas' chances if academy voters switch it off before finishing it. She is the most consistently praised thing about the film and hopefully for her get in the top 5. 

Olivia Coleman is coming for fourth nomination (third in Best Actress) for Empire of Light. She's becoming a staple of the ceremony and one of our most reliably great actresses.  Amsterdam is getting very negative reviews, so Margot Robbie has a better shot with Babylon. I'm thinking The Woman King gets into Best Picture and if that's true than I have to predict Viola Davis will get in for Best Actress, 

Jennifer Lawrence may also be back in the race for Causeway, in which she plays a soldier with a brain injury attempting to incorporate back into civilian life. The reviews for her and Brian Tyree Henry have been strong, and it sounds like this may be one of Lawrence's more subtle and least affected performances. Then there's Women Talking's Rooney Mara, whom if she gets in, will be the second actor Sarah Polley has directed to an Oscar nomination- after Julie Christie in Away From Her. 

BEST ACTOR

This year definitely feels like it's between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler for The Whale and Elvis, respectively. This could be Fraser's moment, but it also has the feeling of a Mickey Rourke/Michael Keaton situation where the comeback narrative gets derailed by an actor playing a real person (Sean Penn, Eddie Redmayne).

Colin Farrell is arguably one of our most due actors when it comes to Oscar, and he'll be getting his first nomination for Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisheran. The other Colin, Firth, is also aiming for his third nomination for Empire of Light (he was nominated for A Single Man and The King's Speech back-to-back, winning for the latter.)

What could shake up the race is the inclusion of Tom Cruise for Top Gun: Maverick. Cruise may be the last movie star without an Oscar so, again, if I was running Paramount's Oscar campaign, I'd be pushing that narrative. I'm not certain he's getting in this year, but it'd be one of the year's most significant acting nominations since he hasn't been nominated since Magnolia.

I'm also not certain Hugh Jackman is getting in for The Son. same goes for Daniel Gimenez Cacho for Bardo- due to both films' polarizing reactions, though it's best to remember that the Academy aren't critics. I don't know if Daniel Craig is being pushed for Best Actor for Glass Onion or Supporting. Either way, I'd like to see him get in, Knives Out didn't get in any of the acting categories (though I think Craig was my Best Supporting Actor winner that year) so maybe that can change this time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

As I discussed earlier, Michelle Williams is being campaigned for Lead, so it leaves this race open for someone else to win. I assumed Williams was going to do a Patricia Arquette/Laura Dern this year, winning for her career. 

Jessie Buckley will ride her nomination for Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter in to another one for Women Talking. Claire Foy had one of those "supposed to be nominated" performances for First Man). We also have Nina Hoss and Noemie Merlant in Tar. 

Sadie Sink will get the "Welcome to the club" nomination for playing Brendan Fraser's daughter in The Whale and possibly be the upset winner, as well as one of the youngest winners at 20. I'd love to see Stephanie Hsu in for EEATO, one of the more complicated villain roles in recent memory and arguably the film's heart. Her co-star in the film, Jamie Lee Curtis, is low in the rankings but that'd be an amazing first nomination for the legendary Curtis. 

Jaenelle Monae is said to be the standout in Glass Onion and has already starred in a Best Picture winner and nominee in the same year (Moonlight and Hidden Figures, respectively) so she already has some cred with the Academy. No one from Knives Out made it into the acting categories (though Craig was my supporting actor winner that year I believe) but that could change with its sequel. 

After seeing The Woman King, Viola Davis' co-star Thuso Mbedu is perhaps the film's standout performance. While she arguably belongs in lead, younger and newer actors typically campaign in the supporting categories 

I recently saw Ruben Ostalnd's Triangle of Sadness at The Atlantic Film Festival and Dolly De Leon as the cleaner of a luxury cruise that becomes shipwrecked- giving her the opportunity to become the leader- is a dark horse contender that I also want to happen. 

I'm surprised there isn't more buzz around Kila Lord Cassidy for The Wonder- the story is so much about Pugh's relationship to that girl. If Pugh is getting buzz, so should she. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan is terrific in EEATO, and I want to see him win. Brendan Gleeseon, like Farrell, is getting his first career nomination for The Banshees of Inisheran. Gleason is a wonderful actor, so it'll be great to see him amongst the nominees. Paul Dano and Tobey Maguire are also possibly in contention for their nominations for The Fablemans and Babylon, respectively.  A Tobey Maguire comeback wouldn't be a surprise now after the latest Spider-Man movie. 

Speaking of The Fablemans, Judd Hirsch is pretty high in the predictions for the film. Hirsch is a beloved icon and was nominated in this category for Ordinary People over forty years ago. He could be the sentimental, career recognition winner this year. Brad Pitt won in this category in the last pre-Covid Oscars for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could be back here for another Hollywood-themed film in Babylon.  

So, is Tom Hanks getting in for his oddball performance as a real-life oddball, "Colonel" Tom Parker in Elvis? Maybe so. It's one of those "Is this is good or bad" performances where the entertainment factor outweighs whatever actual quality there is to the work.

OTHER CATEGORIES

Original Screenplay- The Fablemans, Triangle of Sadness, Bardo, EEATO, The Banshees of Inisherin, Babylon, Amsterdam, Tar, Elvis 

Adapted Screenplay- Glass Onion, The Son, Blonde, The Whale, The Wonder, My Policeman, White Noise

Cinematography- Bardo, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Fabelmans, Blonde, Babylon, EEATO, The Whale 

Production Design: Wakanda Forever, Babylon, Don't Worry Darling, Elvis, Babylon, The Fabelmans,

Score: Don't Worry Darling, The Fabelmans, The Whale, Blonde, Avatar: The Way of Blonde

Make-Up: The Whale, Blonde, Elvis, EEATO

Editing: Blonde, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, The Fabelmans, EEATO 

So, what are your thoughts on this year's Oscar race? Do you even care? Comment and let me know.

Some Thoughts on the 2020 Oscar Nominations

Earlier this week the nominations for the 2020 Oscars were announced; and as expected there was controversy over who was nominated and who wasn't, especially in regards to race and gender. Greta Gerwig became the new Barbara Streisand as her adaptation of Louis May Alcott's Little Women garnered 6 nominations including Best Picture but she was left out of the Best Director line-up, which was completely absent of any women. I do wonder if the outcry over Gerwig's lack of a Best Director nomination will help her win Best Adapted Screenplay. Though if she wins there it'll feel like the Academy attempting to brush aside the problem. 

Todd Phillips' Joker led with 11 nominations, including Best Actor for its star Joaquin Phoenix and Best Picture. While I think they overdid it with the nominations I'll say it's incredible we're at a point where a film based on a comic book character can receive the most nominations from the Academy Awards. I do believe The Dark Knight paved the way for Joker, and Black Panther getting in last year. I remember the push to get Christopher Nolan's film to get in the Best Picture and Best Director race. Now with the expanded line-up, The Dark Knight would be a shoo-in for at least a nomination in both categories.

Could Joker win Best Picture? I know even the thought of the film winning gives certain people aneurysms. Many people believed the film would incite violence, claiming it appealed to incels, though the fact the film grossed a billion dollars and has received awards and nominations shows it appeals to people outside of that democratic. If Joker does win, there's a chance Best Director doesn't go to Phillips. Sam Mendes, who won Best Director 20 years ago for his debut film American Beauty, stands a very good shot at winning his second Oscar since his war epic 1917, crafted to look like one continuous shot, is perhaps the *most* directed of the Best Picture nominees, and the Academy often go for that kind of direction.

Then there's Quentin Tarantino, nominated for Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, who's never won Best Director but has two screenwriting Oscars. Tarantino is arguably the most due of any Hollywood director right now, and if there's a film for which the Academy may finally give him Best Director, it's likely OUATIH, which feels like his most personal and humane film. Also, the film is a love letter to Hollywood, and the Academy has awarded films about itself in the past.

Brad Pitt appears to be a sure thing for OUATIH in the Best Supporting Actor category. He has the advantage of being the only nominee without an acting Oscar (he has one for producing Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave) in this category. He also has the overdue factor and if he wins it'll be as much for his career as this particular performance. Joe Pesci could upset him. Martin Scorsese had to coax him out of retirement for The Irishman, so this will likely be Pesci's last appearance in a film. He has the sentimental factor, as does his co-star Al Pacino, who's nominated for the first since finally winning Best Actor for Scent of a Woman. I love Pacino and I think it's a shame he didn't win for either of the first two Godfather films, Serpico or Dog Day Afternoon. 

Tom Hanks received his first nomination in nearly 20 years (for Castaway) for playing Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Hanks could win a third Oscar some day but I think this is a more of a "Welcome back Tom" nomination. The same goes for Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, his first nomination in 22 years, his last being for Amistad in this category.

As with Pitt, Laura Dern winning Best Supporting Actress for Marriage Story feels like a career win, though her speech about the double standards for men and women is a quintessential "Oscar scene." Her co-star Scarlett Johansson received not only her first Oscar nomination but two, Best Actress for Marriage Story, and in this category for JoJo Rabbit, Taika Waititi's satire about a boy in Nazi Germany whose imaginary friend is Adolf Hitler. 

While Renee Zellwegger's turn as Judy Garland in Judy has made her the de facto front-runner, I'm thinking Johansson could upset her here. I don't feel the passion around Judy and without Zellwegger  there'd likely be more of a narrative for Johansson winning. She's had a long career in Hollywood and has reinvented herself from child actress to indie darling. She became a sex symbol and Marvel hero. Now she's becoming somewhat of a character actress. And with Marriage Story having more support in other categories I think she genuinely has a shot. 

Saoirse Ronan received her fourth nomination for Little Women. An argument could be made she deserved to win for Gerwig's debut feature Lady Bird, the Academy likely feels they can get to her later. There's no urgency to reward her just yet.

Joaquin Phoenix has been the front-runner for Best Actor since Joker premiered at the Venice Film Festival back in September I feel he's pretty locked to win. He has the overdue factor as well as the big showy role. And if Joker wins awards through the night before Best Actor is announced, it'd be odd if its star is ignored. I also think Hildur Guonadottir could win Best Original Score for the film. She's already built up an impressive resume with her collaborations with Denis Villeneuve and Alejandro Inarritu and had a breakthrough year with Joker and the HBO miniseries Chernobyl.  She's only the seventh woman to be nominated for Best Original Score and would become the fourth recipient if she won. If the Academy feels they need to make up for the lack of female nominees this year it'd also help Gunadottir's chances. 

Thelma Schoonmaker, Martin Scorsese's long time editor, received her eighth nomination for The Irishman and has won three times previously for Raging Bull, The Aviator and The Departed.  I could see Parasite or Joker winning here. Joker feels like it could do really well on Oscar night though it could also under-perform. 

OUATIH missed out in editing; the editing nomination is seen as essential for a film to win Best Picture, with the exception of Birdman which was made to look like a continuous shot, which is likely the reason why 1917 also failed to receive an editing nomination as well. I think Best Picture is wide open. Parasite could become the first Foreign Language Best Picture winner. Alfonso Cuaron's Roma seemed pegged to take that honour but lost out to Green Book. If Parasite wins, it'll make history and act as a make-up for Roma.    

Now, I want to talk a little bit more about the controversy surrounding the lack of female and POC nominees this year, which has also been an issue previous years as well. I believe that the lack of diversity in the Oscar race is a symptom of the larger problem in Hollywood rather than the cause. If this problem is to be fixed we have to approach it from the angle from how movies are made and who gets to make them. I know this also easier to say then to do but it's important to remember the Oscars are part of a larger problem. 

So, those my overall thoughts on this year's nominations. How do you feel about the nominations? Who did want to get in and who do you think will win. Let me know.

Looking Forward to Oscars 2020

For film fans, the most important season isn't Halloween or Christmas, it's Oscar season. As much as I disagree with the Oscars' choices for nominees and winners, every year I get sucked back in to the race, the predictions, the controversies and the surprises. As I've done before, I want to go through the major categories and give my thoughts on the likely nominees and the dark horses. 

Best Picture/Director

While things may change by the time we get deep in to the season, I think the two films going head to head for Best Picture are the opuses by Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino- The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood, respectively. The idea of Scorsese going for his second Best Director Oscar and Tarantino possibly winning his first (he's won two for Original Screenplay) is exciting. I thought Silence deserved more love from the Academy and The Irishman will likely be the polar opposite, getting plenty of nominations, in the same way Shutter Island was ignored and then Hugo became a huge contender. The Irishman has been called Scorsese's Unforgiven, a director looking back at his history in the genre, with Clint Eastwood it was the Western, with Scorsese, the gangster lifestyle. 

OUATIH is Tarantino's most humane film since Jackie Brown and perhaps his most personal. Hollywood loves films about itself and the film is a love letter to bygone era as well as Tarantino offering an "what if" question of what Hollywood would look like if the Manson cult hadn't succeeded in their murder spree. This combination of nostalgia and a "happy ending" could really take it all the way.

Then there's Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story, which provides an alternative to the two aforementioned epics. The film is an intimate drama about a divorce between Nicole (Scarlett Johansson) and Charlie (Adam Driver') and it's already received critical acclaim across the board. The film feels like the Lady Bird of this year. I don't know that it can win but it could come up the middle if there's a strong divide between The Irishman and OUATIH. Baumbach has been nominated once for Best Screenplay (2005's The Squid and the Whale) and everything points to him getting his first Best Director nomination.

I think those three are as of now the three big contenders. Then there's Parasite, Bong Joon Ho's highly praised drama that many have called the best film of 2019. It's a lock for Best Foreign Language film and like last year's Roma it will likely end up in the Best Picture race. 

Sam Mendes hasn't been nominated since winning for American Beauty nearly two decades ago, despite directing baity films like Road to Perdition and Revolutionary Road but that could change with 1917, his World War I film that's been shot and edited to look like one shot. It sounds like Dunkirk if it was Birdman and I think the Academy will really go for it based on it being a technical marvel. 

JoJo Rabbit, Taika Waititi's satire about a boy in Nazi Germany whose imaginary friend is Adolf Hitler, sounds like such an oddball film. However, we're in a different place now with the Oscars where their tastes have broadened. This film is so strikingly bizarre it'll be hard to ignore. 

The big dark horse of the season is Joker, which reinvents the most famous super villain in comic book history from the ground-up.  Black Panther broke the Superhero glass ceiling by getting a Best Picture nomination and Joker could follow suit. And if Joaquin Phoenix is going to be the Best Actor front-runner, it'd be odd for the film not to be nominated. The last time a Best Actor winner wasn't in a Best Picture nominee was Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Todd Phillips is an even bigger dark horse for Best Director. 

Jay Roach's Bombshell, which chronicles the Fox News sexual assault scandal, is getting good early buzz and could be the Best Picture winner of the #metoo movement. Roach feels like Adam McKay getting nominated for The Big Short, a director known for comedies who makes a topical drama that gets respect from the Academy. Though to be fair, Roach has been doing this kind of material on TV>

Greta Gerwig's Little Women is still a question mark. I get the sense it could be a sophomore slump for Gerwig after Lady Bird. It's just feels unexciting as a project.

Best Actress

Renee Zellwegger winning for playing Judy Garland in Judy would be a really safe choice but the Academy does love transformative performances, especially when the actor is playing a real person. In that regard Zellwegger's closest competition may be Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. Scarlett Johansson, like Marriage Story itself, is an alternative to these performances. And unlike Zellwegger and Theron, Johansson has never won.

Even if Little Women isn't great, voters love Saoirse Ronan and she  could be looking at her fourth nomination and third in this category. 

Best Actor 

Joaquin Phoenix is my favourite working actor and I think he should've won for The Master and been nominated and won for Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far On Foot. He could possibly dominate the season for Joker. I think he'll benefit from the overdue narrative and the strength of his career overall.

I think it may be too early for Leonardo DiCaprio to win a second Oscar but he'll be nominated for his very funny performance in OUATIH.

Marriage Story keeps feeling like the alternative choice. I don't see Adam Driver, winning but he's a sure bet to get his second Oscar nomination after being nominated in Best Supporting Actor for BlacKkKlansman last year. 

Robert De Niro is up for The Irishman and this could be the last time to honor an acting legend. 

Jonathan Pryce has yet to be nominated and could be looking at his first for The Two Popes, written by Anthony McCarten. McCarten has written the screenplay for three Best Actors thus far: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour and Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. The story of The Two Popes centers around the relationship between Pope Benedict (Anthony Hopkins) and the future Pope Francis (Pryce).

Taron Egerton stands an outside shot for his portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman as does Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, which has garnered him the best reviews of his career since Punch Drunk Love.

Best Supporting Actress

There's already a debate regarding which movie for which to campaign Margot Robbie: OUATIH or Bombshell. I think she stands a better chance for the latter, given her role in the former is too small and doesn't really have a big Oscar scene. Nicole Kidman, who's also in Bombshell, seems primed for another win in the coming years but I don't think it's her year. She may be left out entirely as she was last year for Boy Erased and Destroyer.. 

I think Laura Dern could be this year's Patricia Arquette  and dominating the season for Marriage Story. She has goodwill and the overdue narrative, plus the acclaimed drama behind her. Speaking of Marriage Story, Johansson could be a double nominee this year if she gets in here for JoJo

Rabbit.  Thomasin McKenzie, who deserved a nomination for Leave No Trace last year may get a makeup nomination for JoJo Rabbit as well.

Jennifer Lopez has gotten buzz for Hustlers, being called a reminder of her talent as an actress. If she gets in it's probably be the film's only nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

I love Al Pacino and it's great he'll be back in the race for The Irishman. And Joe Pesci too. I'd love to see Pacino win another Oscar. But Brad Pitt could be the won to beat this year for his loose, quintessentially movie-star performance in OUATIH.

It continues to be so strange Tom Hanks hasn't been nominated since Castaway. He feels like he should be like Meryl Streep, getting nominated every other year. I think it's because he makes it look so easy so it's easy to take him for granted. His casting as Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood felt perfect even before the trailer- which itself is a tear jerker- was released. This could finally bring Hanks back. The film's director, Marielle Heller, directed Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant to nominations for last year's Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

Taika Waititi, aside from writing and directing JoJo Rabbit, also co-stars as the imaginary Adolf Hitler. It'd be one of the most outlandish performances ever nominated; but like I said about the movie, it's a performance that's hard to ignore.

Chrisitian Bale could also pop up for James Mangold's Ford v. Ferrari. He was nominated this year for Vice and this could be an afterglow nomination.

John Lithgow, who's way overdue for a nomination, is a possible contender for playing Roger Ailes in Bombshell. Covered in make-up and essentially playing the villain, it's the type of role the Academy eats up.

Best Original Screenplay

Is this Noah Baumbach's to lose? Unless voters want to give Quentin Tarantino a third Best Original Screenplay Oscar. 

Bong Joon-Ho will likely be a multiple nominee this year, with nominations for Director, Picture, Foreign Language and here in screenplay. 

I'd like to see Jordan Peele nominated here for Us but I don't think that film hit off the same way Get Out did.  

I can honestly see Rian Johnson's script for Knives Out getting in here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Waititi's screenplay for Jojo Rabbit, based on Christine Leunens' novel, could have its best chance to win here.

McCarten has been nominated three times thus far and is looking at a fourth for The Two Popes, based on his play. McCarten specializes in dramatizing real life events and it's worked our for him so far.

If The Irishman really sweeps, Steve Zaillian's screenplay, based on former lawyer Charles Brandt's narrative nonfiction account of hitman Frank "The Irishman" Sheeran, could be the front runner, with Zaillian his second Oscar, his first since Schindler's List.

Other Categories

Cinematography: Roger Deakins- 1917,  Rodrigo Prieto- The Irishman, Robert Richardson- OUATIH, Hong Gyeong-Pyo- Parasite, Robbie Ryan- Marriage Story,  

Editing: Chris Dickens- Rocketman, Thelma Schoonmaker- The Irishman, Fred Raskin- OUATIH, Jennifer Lame- Marriage Story, 

Score: Randy Newman- Marriage Story, Seann Sara Sella- The Irishman, Hildur Guonadittor- Joker, Michael Giacchino- JoJo Rabbit

So, those are my basic thoughts on the race thus far. Who do you think will be nominated? Who should be nominated? Comment below and let me know.